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Johann,
Here is my re-revised scenario for Historian!
First, the moves for this Spring move coming up:

Italy:
A Ser to Tri, F Lyo to Mars (cuts suport and small chance of getting in), 
F WMed supports Eng F MidAtl to Spa NC, A Bud S A Gal to Rum, A Gal to Rum, 
F Gre to Ion, F NAfr to MidAtlan (bounces EngCh -- see below)

Turkey:
F Bul EC to BlaS, A Arm S F Sev, F Sev S F Bul EC to BlaS, 
A Con to Bul, F Aeg to Gre

Germany:
Mun to Sil, Ber to Pru, Vie S Ita A Ser to Tri, Den to Swe, 
Kiel to Ber, Paris S Eng A Bre to Gas

England:
NSea to Ska, NAtl to NorwS, Lon to NSea, Bre to Gas, MidAtl to Spa NC,
EngCh to MidAtlan (this bounces NAfr, see below)


During the next move (Fall move), you support me into Marseilles (assuming
I didn't make it this time).  If necessary, use EngCh to guard Bel from
the French army which retreated to Bur (and will soon vanish!)
Elsewhere on the board, you (Eng and Germany) will have two forces on
EACH of Norway and Sweden, so you can occupy both centers this Fall.
Elsewhere, you will still control Vienna, and will take War either this 
year or next.
If France completely outguesses us, there is some chance of his
keeping Spain this move, but it must then fall next move (Fall move
of this year) since you'll be in Gas then.  That might mean I wouldn't be
in Mars until next year, a risk which is small and I am willing to take it.
In fact, France still thinks I'm her friend, and no doubt Russia thinks
Germany is hers now; we should have a good chance of knowing their moves
today!


The upshot of all this is that, at the end of the Fall move this year,
England will gain Norway (even if Russia moves there now), Sweden,
and Spain (2 builds).   
Germany will gain War (or next year) and keep Vie (2 builds).
Turkey will gain no builds.
Italy will gain Tri, Mars (or next year), Rum, and lose Venice (2 builds).

At that stage we call for a concession.  Even if there is a holdout
(Russia), it should only take one more year to finish him off.

Doug